Much attention has been given to President Macron’s decision to telephone President Putin, as well as President Zelenskyy, to urge peace amid the horrors of war. But an EU and NATO leader is unlikely to sway the Kremlin. It’s the efforts of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan that are more likely to offer a way out of conflict, if and when there’s a willingness to take it, writes Political Editor Nick Powell.
The skies above Kazakhstan have been much busier than usual in recent days. Airlines have sought a new route between Asia and Europe after being ordered by many of their governments to avoid Russian airspace. The air navigation company Kazaernavigatsiya says it’s ready and able to cope with a tripling of traffic to some 450 flights a day.
It’s a positive response to a crisis from a country that has no wish to become a supporter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, either diplomatically or militarily by sending troops. Kazakhstan did not follow Russia in recognising the separatist republics in eastern Ukraine.
Unsurprisingly, the Kazakh government was outraged when the British Foreign Secretary said she would look into a backbench MP’s suggestion that sanctions on Russia, such as flight restrictions, should be extended to Kazakhstan. Britain’s ambassador was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in Nur-Sultan to try to explain the British government’s failure to keep up with what was happening. A subsequent video meeting between the ambassador, a British minister of state and the Kazakh deputy foreign minister produced an assurance that the United Kingdom has no intention of imposing any sanctions on Kazakhstan.
Standard and Poor have left Kazakhstan’s credit ratings unchanged, viewing problems with Russian trade as surmountable and not affecting key exports. An agreement for Kazakh cargoes to use Latvian ports, in place of Russian ones, was concluded by the two governments on March 3rd. Trade along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, offers great potential for traffic avoiding Russia. It links China and Kazakhstan with Europe via the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan’s response to the invasion of Ukraine has not only involved taking action to protect his country’s economic interests. He has also been working the phones, speaking to the presidents of both Ukraine and Russia.
Speaking to President Zelenskyy, he discussed humanitarian cooperation and the importance of negotiations to halt hostilities in Ukraine. In his call to President Putin, President Tokayev stressed the exceptional importance of reaching a compromise agreement during any negotiations.
When and whether the Russian president is willing to compromise remains to be seen but it is in the interests of the world, not just Kazakhstan, that the possibility is kept open despite the unrelenting grim news from Ukraine at present.
